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CHAT TRANSCRIPTS

Politics Chat - Feb. 5, 2008

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Union-Tribune politics reporter John Marelius answered questions from readers during a Tuesday morning chat session at uniontrib.com/chat.

johnmarelius(P) A lot has happened since last we chatted. John McCain wins Florida primary. Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards drop out. Giuliani and Arnold Schwarzenegger endorse McCain. Two presidential debates in California. And, of course, today is Election Day in California and 23 other states. So lots to talk about. Let's get started.

TroyO(Q) Where are the polling locations; I'm new to my neighborhood in Carlsbad

johnmarelius(A) The back page of your sample ballot will have the location of your polling place. If you didn't get one, you can call the San Diego County Registrar of Voters office at (858) 565-5800

moderator(Q) This question was submitted via e-mail by Mike Russell: I did not receive my ballot information at my address this year. Don't know why, so I mailed in a form from the post office. Can I go to my local poll with the registration number from my form and still vote today?

johnmarelius(A) As long as you registered 15 days before the election, you can just go to your polling place and vote. I don't see why you would need the registration number. Your name should be on their list. If you don't know where your polling place is, see previous question.

sd72(Q) What are your thoughts on Clinton's display of emotion yesterday? Once in New Hampshire seemed genuine. Again on the eve of another close contest seems calculating.

johnmarelius(A) I didn't see it, but it doesn't strike me as calculating. She was at a children's legal center at Yale Law School. That is her alma mater and where she got her first legal job. She was given a very warm introduction by an old classmate. So it was an emotional moment and it went by pretty fast.

sd72(Q) Do you think there will be any clarity in the presidential race after today's voting?

johnmarelius(A) It's far more likely in the Republican race than the Democratic race. Most of the Republican primaries are winner take all. (California is winner take all by congressional district). So if somebody were to win most of the big states in play today -- New York, New Jersey, Illinois -- that's a whole lot of delegates. Democratic Party rules require that delegates be divided by congressional district in rough proportion to the popular vote. (It's much more complicated than that, but I'll spare you the details). But what that means is that in a close two-person race, the losing candidate will walk away with a lot of delegates. This one could go on for awhile.

KenC1313(Q) If Clinton and Obama come out of today relatively even, what are the most likely scenarios for how their race will finally be decided?

johnmarelius(A) Welcome back, Ken. Your question presents a good opportunity to look at the calendar. There's been so much focus on Super Tuesday, and appropriately so, there's been little attention to what comes next. If January and early February has been a political sprint, it's going to slow down to a leisurely walk. There are caucuses in Washington on Saturday and Maine on Sunday. Also the Louisiana primary on Saturday and primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia next Tuesday. Wisconsin and Hawaii the following Tuesday. The next big states vote on March 4 -- Ohio and Texas, also Rhode Island and Vermont. There's the Mississippi primary on March 11 and then nothing until the Pennsylvania primary on April 22. Pennsylvania could decide the whole thing. If not, who knows? Maybe I'll have a real story to cover at a national convention for the first time, although that's probably wishful thinking.

KenC1313(Q) How do you think the "super delegates" will play out in the Democratic race? Are they likely to be wooed all the way to the convention, as they dance back and forth between candidates, or will a strong showing by one candidate today start the ball rolling to get them all lined up in a show of party solidarity?

johnmarelius(A) First a quick explanation: the so-called "superdelegates" are mostly members of Congress and other elected officials and party officials who are automatically unpledged delegates. Many of them have already picked out their Cabinet posts, so they tend to gravitate toward the frontrunner. This year could be different, if the race continues to be this close and plays out for quite awhile longer. In that case, they will be very much in demand. They might have their choice of Cabinet posts.

KenC1313(Q) If indeed McCain becomes the presumptive nominee after today, how do you think that will impact messages that come from the Democratic candidates? Do you think Clinton and Obama continue to try to draw differences between each other, or focus more on why they would be better suited to defeat McCain?

johnmarelius(A) Sorry for the delay. I lost my connection. That happens at least once when I'm doing this on my laptop. Anyway, I wouldn't write off Mitt Romney just yet. McCain has what seem to be insurmountable leads in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. But California, Illinois and Georgia are close. That's why you've probably been seeing all those Romney ads over the weekend. To answer your question, we're already starting to see both dynamics kick in. I would expect Clinton and Obama to continue to focus primarily on each other, even though their differences are rather minimal. Democrats are so used to having Bush and Cheney as their boogeymen; McCain doesn't arouse that kind of passion -- at least not yet.

KenC1313(Q) Any rumors on Edwards making an endorsement soon? Are there any upcoming states where his influence might be a deciding factor?

johnmarelius(A) No indication about an Edwards endorsement yet. I'm don't know there are specific states where it would make a big difference. But that 10 to 15 percent that would have voted for him has to go somewhere. There's a bit of a paradox here. I think his endorsing Obama would be more in keeping with Edwards' message about dramatically changing Washington and focusing on poverty. But a lot of the Edwards voters are working-class voters and labor union members who have been Clinton voters in earlier states.

Phil(Q) Do you think that either Romney or McCain will be able to duplicate ans continue the success of Bush's transformational "Ownerwhip Society"?

johnmarelius(A) Thankfully, we haven't heard that clunky phrase this year.

KenC1313(Q) We know that Romney's personal pockets are deeper than McCain's, but from a fundraising standpoint has McCain's recent success leveled the financial playing field or is he still playing catchup?

johnmarelius(A) Nobody will ever come close to matching Romney's spending. But there is such saturation news coverage that ads are much less important than they would be in, for example, a state race where that might be about the only thing voters learn about a candidate. I was struck in Iowa by turning on the television and seeing about 10 ads in a row. I can't imagine many voters paid much attention to them. Besides, as Mike Huckabee wryly noted in the last debate, Romney doesn't seem to have gotten much return on his investment.

ereiz03(Q) Who do you think are the front runner VP candidates for Clinton or Obama?

johnmarelius(A) Too soon to tell. I question the "dream ticket" scenario of having both of them on the ticket. Since they're both senators, I would think a governor would be a possibility -- someone like former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack or maybe Bill Richardson. Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana is also a former governor. If Obama is the nominee, he might want somebody with foreign policy credentials. Someone like Joe Biden, although I don't know if he would be interested.

Phil(Q) I was able to catch all of McCain's stump speech on c-span last night and I could'nt help but be reminded of Barry GoldWater. He sounds, in fact makes, many of the same arguments that Goldwater did during the Vietnam war.

johnmarelius(A) I never looked at it that way. While there are some obvious comparisons between Iraq and Vietnam, the two were fought in completely different contexts -- the Cold War versus Islamic terrorism.

KenC1313(Q) John, thanks for doing these chats so regularly. I wish the U-T would promote them more so we would have a bigger turnout, but you always provide good info and insight.

johnmarelius(A) Thanks. I and others have made that very suggestion.

johnmarelius(P) It looks like we're out of time. Thanks for the questions. I'll be back next Tuesday and who knows what the races will look like then.

moderator(P) Global warming. Myth or reality? Join us Feb. 8 at noon for a special chat on climate change with UCSD professor Jeff Severinghaus. Please remember to check the chat schedule, which can be found at http://www.signonsandiego.com/chat, for a list of our upcoming chats. If you don't have time to join a chat, just use the link on the chat page to e-mail a question to the moderator. Then, when you have time, return to this page (www.signonsandiego.com/chat) to read the transcript. We can't answer every question, but we will do our best. Thank you for joining us today for the politics chat. See you next week.


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