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Politics Chat - Feb. 12, 2008

Union-Tribune sports writer John Marelius answered questions from readers during a Tuesday morning chat session at uniontrib.com/chat.

johnmarelius(P) John McCain cleans up on Super Tuesday and not all Republicans are happy about it. It was a split decision for the Democrats, but Barack Obama has been on a roll since. So let's get to your questions.

sd72(Q) It seems everyone has declared McCain the victor but the voters. With Huckabee still winning primaries, will he pose a challenge to McCain's presumptive nomination victory?

johnmarelius(A) I don't see any way Huckabee can overcome the math. McCain has more than three times as many delegates as he does. Despite the pressure from some Republicans for Huckabee to drop out, I'm not so sure it's a bad thing for McCain to have him around awhile longer. McCain needs to make his case to Republican conservatives and keeping the media spotlight on the Republican race helps him do that. In addition, McCain and Huckabee seem to developed a mutual respect and Huckabee probably wants to be on the ticket. So McCain is in the unique position of having an opponent who both likes him and wants something and isn't attacking him.

sd72(Q) What are your opinions on the Democratic side? Right now it appears to me that Obama is headed for the nomination. Is Hillary's campaign in as deep trouble as I think it is?

johnmarelius(A) I don't have opinions, but I can analyze. I think it's way too soon to write off the Clinton campaign, but it's been a pretty rough week for them since Super Tuesday. She's focusing on Texas and Ohio, both of which appear to be good states for her. The problem is they don't vote until March 4. If Obama keeps racking up victories before then, even though they are in much smaller states, that just adds to his momentum. I noticed a comment somewhere this morning by Republican pollster Bill McInturff who said he's never seen a political phenomenon like Obama and that it's a testament to Clinton's resillience that she's still in it.

johnmarelius(P) By the way, here is the latest delegate count, according to Associated Press. Clinton, 1,147; Obama, 1,124; 2,025 needed to nominate. McCain, 729; Romney, 288; Huckabee, 241; needed to nominate, 1,191.

XinJeisan(Q) It seems that historically presidents and vice presidents didn't need to get along. Do you think that there is any way there will be an Obama Clinton or Clinton Obama ticket for the Democratic Party?

johnmarelius(A) There's certainly a theoretical case to be made for it because Clinton and Obama have demonstrated appeal to such different constituencies within the Democratic Party and, in Obama's case, among independents. Whether either one of them would want to settle for No. 2 is another matter.

sd72(Q) James Dobson has said, "Should McCain capture the nomination as many assume, I believe this general election will offer the worst choices for president in my lifetime." He went on to say he would not vote in the fall if McCain was the nominee. Is Dobson's opinion widely shared among conservatives and the Religious Right?

johnmarelius(A) I don't think it is to that extent. Whatever they say now, it's hard to imagine conservative Republicans voting for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in November. Not voting at all is another matter. The flip side of the coin is that every time McCain is attacked by James Dobson or Rush Limbaugh, it helps him with independents and moderate Democrats.

XinJeisan(Q) Who then, are the leading contenders as to who the vice presidental candidates will be in be for the Democrats, and, besides Huckabee, for the Republicans?

johnmarelius(A) It's way too early to say. But I would think that because both Democratic frontrunners are northern senators, that would argue for a western or border state governor -- possibly Bill Richardson or former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack. Obama might want more of an elder statesman with some foreign policy credentials. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd come to mind, although I have no idea if either would be interested. For the Republicans, some conservatives have a lot of problems with Huckabee on economic issues and immigration. I would think McCain would want to shore up the South. He and Sen. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina are very close. I would think that another possibility would be South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour would be a lot of fun, but his long and lucrative career as a Washington lobbyist might be a treasure trove for opposition researchers.

XinJeisan(Q) What do you see as any consequences, good or bad, to a brokered Democratic convention.

johnmarelius(A) The good is that I would have a real story to cover at a national convention for the first time in my career. But it could be a real train wreck for the Democratic Party. It would mean that the nomination would probably be decided by the so-called "superdelegates" who are mostly members of Congress and the Democratic National Committee. Having the nominee chosen by a bunch of politicians is not the message Democrats want to send.

XinJeisan(Q) However, just from reading comments on line and such, there seems to be a general consensus that democrats are going to vote for either clinton or obama. with such a lack of passion on the Republican side, as long as Clinton and Obama can act like they did at their last debate as opposed to two debates before, doesn't keeping their story in the media, including a brokered convention, help with getting their message out?

johnmarelius(A) You make a good argument, as long as it doesn't get too nasty. But the convention is six months away and it's hard to imagine that the campaign will become kinder and gentler as the convention approaches. As you alluded to in your question, when the debates become rancorous, it doesn't exactly bring out the best side in either one of them.

XinJeisan(Q) When does John Edwards endorse someone and who do you think he will endorse?

johnmarelius(A) Edwards is being heavily courted by both campaigns. I know Clinton met with him a few days ago. I'm not sure if Obama has yet or not. Edwards only has 26 delegates, but as close as the race is, that could matter. Of course, they would be free to vote for whomever they want to once he releases them. I think there is a bit of a paradox regarding the question of where the Edwards vote goes. It would seem that Edwards' emphasis on poverty is more in keeping with Obama's message. But his voters tended to be working-class voters and labor union members who have been voting disproportionately for Clinton.

KenC1313(Q) Are there states between now and March 4 where Clinton has a legitimate chance, and if not, is it likely that Clinton support in Texas and Ohio will erode (like what happened to Giuliani in Florida)?

johnmarelius(A) Looking at the calendar, we have Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia today. Obama is favored in all three of them. Hawaii and Wisconsin are are Feb. 19. Obama looks pretty strong there too. Then we get to March 4 with Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont. As I mentioned earlier -- maybe before you signed on -- even though Obama is winning relatively small states, headlines about Obama victories once or twice a week can only add to his momentum. I don't think I'd go so far as the Giuliani comparison. Keep in mind, Giuliani was finishing fifth or sixth in the states leading up to Florida.

johnmarelius(P) Looks like we're out of time for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday at the same time, possibly with a special guest star.

moderator(P) Did an intelligent designer create life on earth? Discuss life's origins with the Discovery Institute's Casey Luskin on March 7 from noon to 1 p.m. Be sure to join us next Tuesday at 10 a.m. when we'll discuss local politics and what is happening at City Hall with Union-Tribune reporter Matt Hall. And don't forget our Monday morning sports chat. To read a copy of this chat's transcript visit http://www.signonsandiego.com/chat/transcripts.html . Transcripts are posted shortly after each chat.