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CHAT TRANSCRIPTS

Politics Chat - Feb. 19, 2008

Union-Tribune reporters John Marelius and Matthew Hall answered questions from readers during a Tuesday morning chat session at uniontrib.com/chat.

johnmarelius(P) Good morning. We're trying a slightly different format this morning. As always, I'm here to take your questions about the presidential campaign. Also, City Hall reporter Matthew Hall can field your questions about the mayor's race, city attorney's race and other local issues.

sd72(Q) At this point, neither Obama nor Clinton can win the nomination without the superdelegates. Do you foresee a brokered convention, or do you think the party will step in and make a deal before August?

johnmarelius(A) I'd love to have a real story to cover at a national convention for the first time, but a brokered convention is probably too much to hope for. I think we'll know a lot more after next Tuesday's primaries in Texas and Ohio. If Obama can pull off an upset in one of those his momentum will be pretty hard to stop. If it's clear who the choice of the Democratic Party is, the superdelegates -- members of Congress, governors and Democratic National Committee members -- will probably fall in line. Otherwise, it might go all the way to the convention.

johnmarelius(P) Correction: The Texas and Ohio primaries are in two weeks -- March 4.

CURB(Q) Chances of Peters winning?

matthew_hall(A) There's been one poll made public that showed Peters getting more than 20 percent of the vote, trailing Jan Goldsmith, who has the Republican party endorsement, and incumbent Mike Aguirre, who has his share of supporters and detractors. But that poll didn't ask questions about Brian Maienschein, a councilman with a large campaign war chest and a lot of fans in his council district. Clearly, Peters is a known commodity, and he'll benefit from a lot of union support, which will translate into help on the ground though could be viewed as a negative by some. But as Aguirre has already pointed out, Peters also has some baggage: He was here when the pension crisis surfaced and had a role in the underfunding. That's something he'll have to explain, over and over again I imagine as the campaign unfolds. Peters can self-finance, which will help. It's going to be an interesting campaign for many reasons.

sd72(Q) Who are the leading candidates to take on Mayor Jerry Sanders this June?

matthew_hall(A) The campaign was shaping up as a two-person race between Sanders and businessman Steve Francis, who is so wealthy he's expected to pump millions of his money into the campaign. Francis will start running TV ads this week and expects to build some support that way. He's clearly got the most money to spend. There are a handful of other candidates, but among them, veteran councilman Floyd Morrow could pull some votes in this campaign. Morrow was on the council from 1965 to 1977 but has maintained a low profile for many years, running a business. He's the most prominent Democrat, while Sanders and Francis are Republicans, and thus he's poised to pull some votes from the left-leaning. But really in this race there are two kinds of voters at this early stage: Sanders supporters and those who want someone new, and the field won't be fully set until a March 6 filing deadline, so we'll see who else pulls papers to run.

sdcal1(Q) Is Aguirre the only Democrat running for city attorney?

matthew_hall(A) No, Peters, the council president, is a Democrat, and Lee Burdick, an attorney who is active in Chamber of Commerce circles and works for Jimsair, is another Democrat, so there are those two at least. It remains to be seen whether Burdick will run. She has yet to pull papers from the clerk's office, which could be a sign that she has reconsidered because of Peters' entry into the race or for some other reason. Keep in mind, like the mayor's race, the city attorney's race is technically non-partisan, which means politics shouldn't matter but of course they do. Party endorsements, and the volunteers and cash that come with them, play central roles in local races.

sd72(Q) Huckabee knows he cannot win the GOP nomination at this point. What is he hoping to acheive by staying in the race?

johnmarelius(A) I'm sure he'd like to be on the ticket. Also, he's established himself as a leader of political Evangelicals and done so by making an end run around self-appointed leaders like Pat Robertson and James Dobson. Another possible motivation is I'm sure his next book will sell a lot better than his last one. Then there are lecture fees.

Mark(Q) If Obama is the "D" nominee, do you expect the Republicans to try and make an issue out of the church he attends, as well as continue circulating false rumors that he is a Muslim? It reminds me of the Republicans going after Bill Clinton in the 90's over Monica Lewinsky, most American's didn't care, and neither will they care about what church Obama attends.

johnmarelius(A) I can't see the Republican presidential campaign making an issue out of these things, but as we've seen anybody can post anything on the Internet. By the time we get into the general election campaign, there will be plenty of legitimate policy differences between the two nominees to talk about.

XinJeisan(Q) What do you think about the plagiarism charges against Obama?

johnmarelius(A) It may not be much adieu about nothing, but I think it's much adieu about not very much. Both he and Deval Patrick have said the two are friends and frequently compare notes about speeches. It would have been better if Obama had started out by saying, "As my friend Deval Patrick has said..." But beyond that, I can't imagine how many voters really care.

sd72(Q) Will Sanders flip-flop on gay marriage hurt him in the GOP primary?

matthew_hall(A) Well, it's not a GOP primary. It's one primary, for every candidate, on June 3. But it's an interesting question. Some consultants say Sanders' support of gay marriage last year, following his opposition to it in the 2005 campaign, may actually be a net positive for him. There are some on the left who will back Sanders on this issue alone. And with Francis in the race, who ran to Sanders' right in the mayor's race, social conservatives will likely line up behind him. So the question is does he pick up more votes than he loses. Some say yes. The only poll that matters, of course, is the one on June 3, so we'll see. But there are a lot of other issues that voters see as more pressing, such as the city's faltering finances, for one.

matthew_hall(P) Oops, meant to say that Francis ran to Sanders' right in the 2005 race. Omitted the date. This time around, Francis is essentially running to Sanders' left and right, trying to pick up votes on either side.

XinJeisan(Q) How do you think turn out will be for the Jun 3d primary, with many people already have gone to the polls this month already?

matthew_hall(A) Turnout could definitely be a factor. There's been so much focus on the presidential race that I imagine some people don't even know there will be another election in June. But believe me, they'll soon find out. Francis will barrage San Diegans with TV ads and the mail will start arriving in people's homes in May. There will also be some local ballot measures that could drive people to the polls. But interest may be low. It certainly will be lower in June than it would be in a November runoff election. In local races, if no candidate gets more than half the vote in June, the top two vote-getters will go to a runoff. It's in those runoffs that party politics may play a more central role, but candidates need to get enough votes to make a runoff first, obviously. The short answer is: We'll see.

XinJeisan(Q) What are the local ballot measures coming up on the June 3d elections?

matthew_hall(A) The language has yet to be decided. The council is actually meeting next week to finalize it. But the issues involve pay raises for elected officials, changes to the administrative structure in charge of the city's oft-troubled auditing and financial reporting, and some alterations to the city's strong-mayor style of government.

johnmarelius(P) It looks like we're out of time for today. We'll be back next week at the same time.

moderator(P) Did an intelligent designer create life on earth? Discuss life's origins with the Discovery Institute's Casey Luskin on March 7 from noon to 1 p.m. Be sure to join us next Tuesday at 10 a.m. when we'll discuss the latest events in the world of politics. And don't forget our Monday morning sports chat. To read a copy of this chat's transcript visit http://www.signonsandiego.com/chat/transcripts.html . Transcripts are posted shortly after each chat.


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