Politics Chat - April 8, 2008

Union-Tribune politics writer John Marelius answered questions from readers during a Tuesday morning chat session at uniontrib.com/chat.

diego72(Q) Obama has won more pledged delegates, the popular vote and states. How is Clinton's campaign going in convincing super delegates to back her?

johnmarelius(A) I think it's becoming a tougher and tougher sell. There's been a little bit of slippage of superdelegates over to Obama. But if she wins convincingly in Pennsylvania on April 22 and then in Indiana and North Carolina the following week her electability argument would be more persuasive -- especially if she wins North Carolina where Obama currently is heavily favored. The electability argument is tricky, however. The more forcefully she makes the case that Obama can't win, the more some Democrats complain that she's undermining the likely nominee's chances in November.

KenC1313(Q) Now that it appears there will be no new primaries or caucuses in Florida and Michigan, what do you expect to be the eventual result for those states? Assuming they have delegates at the convention, how do you think that will be handled?

johnmarelius(A) The Democratic Party has really made a mess of this and I'm not sure how they're going to get out of it. Howard Dean says any solution would have to be agreed to by both the Clinton and Obama campaigns and so far nobody has proposed anything that both will sign off on. It would seem the most likely solution would be to name delegations that are split 50-50. But that's hardly an ideal solution because while it allows people from Florida and Michigan to go to the convention, it doesn't involve the voters of those states.

diego72(Q) It is no longer too early to speculate. Who is in the running to be McCain's VP? Has he said when a decision will be made?

johnmarelius(A) McCain has said he wants to make a decision well before the convention. He cited the Dan Quayle fiasco as his rationale. As for names, it's wide open. There's been quite a bit of talk about Mitt Romney and it's pretty evident that Romney wants it to position himsself for another presidential run. It was also pretty evident throughout the primary campaign that McCain and Romney couldn't stand each other. Neither could John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, so that's not insurmountable. McCain's closest friend and adviser in the Senate is Lindsay Graham of South Carolina. But I don't see how another senator with foreign policy credentials from a state the Republicans can't possibly lose helps. Florida Gov. Charlie Criss and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty would seem more likely prospects. Both are very popular in their home states, both of which figure to be swing states in November.

KenC1313(Q) What do you think is the story behind why the Clinton's are so angry with Bill Richardson? Obviously, they wanted or expected him to either endorse Clinton or stay neutral, but it seems there is truly anger beyond just disappointment that he chose Obama.

johnmarelius(A) There was a story that Bill Clinton really went into a tirade over the subject at a meeting with delegates at the California Democratic Party convention in San Jose a couple of weeks ago, although some people who were in the room say it was exaggerated. One of the Clintons' less appealing qualities is their sense of entitlement. I think Clinton figures he made Richardson into a national political figure by appointing him secretary of energy and United Nations ambassador and that Richardson owes it to them.

dblacksd(Q) What odds do you give to Lieberman? He has been on the trail with McCain.

johnmarelius(A) Lieberman's an intriguing possibility, especially given McCain's unpredictable streak. Would Lieberman help carry Connecticut. Maybe, but New England becomes more Democratic every four years. The other calculation for McCain is how that would play with conservatives. McCain may be of a mind just to roll the dice and hope conservatives will come around by November given that the alternative would be a pretty liberal Democrat. But we'll see.

KenC1313(Q) Although it might still be a little early to forecast general election campaign strategies, which would you say are the five most critical battleground or swing states?

johnmarelius(A) Looking at the states where the race between George W. Bush and John Kerry was closest in 2004, you'd have to start with Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio. Of the larger states, Bush won Florida by 5 points and Kerry won Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania by 3. That's why there's so much VP speculation about Govs. Criss and Pawlenty. And you can add a name I overlooked a few minutes ago: Tom Ridge, the former governor of Pennsylvania and homeland security secretary.

dblacksd(Q) Don't all politicians have a sense of entitlement? Why is it a problem for only the Clintons?

johnmarelius(A) You raise a good point. They probably all do to one degree or another. In the Clintons' case, it just seems supersized.

dblacksd(Q) It seems like this election will be a repeat of 1992, from an economic point of view. The candidates are still sparing over foreign policy. When does the economy become the issue of the day?

johnmarelius(A) I think the economy has become the issue of the day. The most recent poll I can find, CBS/New York Times, that asks voters what they think is the most important problem facing the country, the economy is first with 37% followed by the war in Iraq at 15%. If you think back about a year all the candidates talked about, particularly the Democrats, was Iraq and health care and the economy seldom came up. As long as we're at war, foreign policy is going to be a central issue. But there's no question it has receded some as the economy has worsened.

johnmarelius(P) We're out of time for this week. Matt Hall will be here next Tuesday to talk about City Hall politics and I'll be back the following week. Thanks for the questions.