Politics Chat - April 15, 2008

Union-Tribune politics writer John Marelius answered questions from readers during a Tuesday morning chat session at uniontrib.com/chat.

johnmarelius(P) Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama debate tomorrow night in Philadelphia. It's their first debate in nearly two months. I wonder if they'll find anything to talk about. Gov. Schwarzenegger says he'll fight anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment if it qualifies for the ballot. Matt Hall was going to be here today to talk City Hall politics, but has a schedule conflict. City Council pay raises are a little outside my bailiwick, but I think I remember how to spell "tonedeaf." So let's get started.

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diego72(Q) What do you think of McCain's proposal for a gas tax holiday?

johnmarelius(A) The economics of the situation are a little outside my area of expertise. But the politics are pretty obvious. While McCain generally supports the Bush administration's economic policies, he's definitely trying to put a more populist spin on it by calling for gas tax relief and help with student loans. He also separates himself from Bush and congressional Republicans by accusing both parties of excessive spending -- something he's done on a number of occasions over the years.

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diego72(Q) What are your thoughts on the controversy over Obama's "bitter" comments? Do you think voters will care about the comments?

johnmarelius(A) Most of these controversies of the last several weeks that dominate television coverage for two or three days don't seem to have made much impact on voters. Typically, they've caused a blip in the polls and then things settle back to the way they were. This could be different, but we'll know more in a week when Pennsylvania votes. I don't think the most potentially damaging part of the quote was saying that some people are bitter about their economic circumstances, but saying that they "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them. The only poll I've seen that was conducted after this flap erupted was an American Research Group poll in Pennsylvania. In late March, it showed Clinton leading Obama, 51% to 39%. A week ago it was tied at 45%. Now it shows Clinton leading Obama 57% to 37%. There's still a week, so we'll see where this goes.

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leroy(Q) John...do you think John McCain will have a chance at being the next president despite his racist track record?

johnmarelius(A) I have no idea what you mean by his "racist track record." But I think McCain has the best chance of just about any candidate the Republican Party could have fielded. That said, with an unpopular Republican administration, an unpopular war and a struggling economy, it's going to be uphill for any Republican.

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diego72(Q) So, do you think these Obama's comments will give the superdelegates "cover" to choose Clinton? To be honest, I don't understand how she can get the nomination when she trails in states, votes and pledged delegates.

johnmarelius(A) She plainly hopes so, but I think it will take a lot more to create a superdelegate revolt against Obama than a few ill-chosen remarks. If Clinton wins convincingly in Pennsylvania and two weeks later in Indiana and North Carolina, she would have a much stronger case to make, especially because Obama is currently favored in North Carolina.

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diego72(Q) I don't want it to sound like I am falling for Clinton's selling points, but is Obama electable? He's winning in states where the GOP can't lose in November. He's losing in states that are battlegrounds. Just as a disclaimer: I also doubt Hillary is electable.

johnmarelius(A) I think all three candidates are electable. It just depends on how the campaign plays out. I also think the spin out of the Clinton and Obama campaigns about whose primary victories are more significant in terms of the general election are completely bogus because primary and general elections are such completely different animals. Because Clinton prevailed among Democratic voters in Ohio, does that mean she would prevail among all voters in Ohio? Who knows.

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johnmarelius(P) Looks like the hour's up. We'll be back next Tuesday at 10:00.

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