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CHAT TRANSCRIPTS

Politics Chat - May 13, 2008

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Union-Tribune reporter John Marelius answered readers' questions about state and national politics during a Tuesday morning chat session at uniontrib.com/chat.

johnmarelius(P) Sorry for the delay. Computer problems at this end apparently. Anyway, Hillary Clinton is expected to win big today in West Virginia. The question is, will it matter? So let's get started.

casper(Q) How come your link to the voter guide has been down/not visible since last Friday and prior to that there weren't links to the candidates statements when you clicked on them specifically?

johnmarelius(A) The link has been moved. It's labeled Election 2008 and it's a little farther down the page in the right-hand column. Thanks for checking.

diego72(Q) What did you think about McCain's global warming speech yesterday? Are the Republicans finally beginning to address climate change, or is this more of the same from the GOP?

johnmarelius(A) I think for McCain, the fact that he gave a global warming speech is probably more important than the substance of what he said. It's another way to put some distance between himself and the Bush administration. He has talked about the urgency of doing something about global warming in his campaign speeches fairly regularly, although his voting record is somewhat mixed on the issue.

KenC1313(Q) So what do you think Clinton's end game is now? Is she trying to stay alive to continue fundraising and pay off some debts, is she angling for the VP position, or is she just trying to position herself to leave on a high note to keep her options open in four years?

johnmarelius(A) Any or all of the above. A lot of people speculate that she wants the vice presidential nomination, although I'm not sure why she would. She has established herself as a major national political figure and in a strong position to run for president again in four or eight years either way.

bb5(Q) What is the stronger ticket? Obama - Clinton or Clinton - obama

johnmarelius(A) I'm not sure either one is a terribly strong ticket. There's a bit of a contradiction here. On the one hand, Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama is probably the best way to unite the Democratic Party. But I question whether a ticket of two relatively inexperienced, fairly liberal Democratic senators is the best way to appeal to the independents and swing voters the party will need in November.

diego72(Q) McCain appeared on stage with Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski, a Democrat. In our current partisan climate, that seemed odd. Is it a sign we are moving past the poisonous partisanship of the last decade or so?

johnmarelius(A) I had not noticed that. It may just have been a political courtesy. Kulongoski has a reputation as something of a maverick as does McCain, but it is a little unusual.

moderator(Q) The following question was sent via e-mail by Mark: Will there be any significant revisions in the governors budget which is expected to be released on the 15th in regards to funding for education? If not, do you think that new taxes such as those on online downloads, beer, plastic bags, etc. will be adopted to close the overall budget gap?

johnmarelius(A) A lot depends on what the numbers actually show. Most people who know more about state finances than I do think Gov. Schwarzenegger's estimate of a $20 billion deficit is exaggerated. But if it's pretty close to the mark, I question how far these nickel-and-dime tax increases -- or fee increases, as they would probably be packaged -- will go in closing the gap. Either way, there will be a lot of pressure not to cut education.

diego72(Q) At this point, in regards to Clinton's campaign, does it matter if the Florida and Michigan delegations are seated?

johnmarelius(A) Probably not. There's going to be a meeting of a couple of Democratic Party committees on the subject on May 31. Whatever is decided -- if anything -- I think is likely to involve a fairly even split in the delegates which would not work to the decided advantage of either candidate.

chas(Q) ON running mates, assuming that Obama wins, my read is that he would likely tab an older white male, any suggestions as to who the possibilities might be?

johnmarelius(A) I think there's a good chance of that. Of course, how many older white males, other than Dick Cheney want to be vice president. One name that has come up recently is Sam Nunn, the former senator from Georgia who has solid foreign policy credentials. Joe Biden might fall in that category as well. Another possibility is Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, who is a strong Clinton supporter.

diego72(Q) Clinton says Obama has a problem with working-class white voters. To me, this seems a little insulting and racist - a Clinton spin on the "Southern strategy." Am I misunderstanding what she meant, or are the Clintons playing the race card?

johnmarelius(A) What she said didn't come out very well, but I think she was just commenting on the demographic trends that we've seen in all of the exit polls.

chas(Q) As for potential running mates for McCain, does he go to solidify the repub base or appeal to independents. Who would fit those slots?

johnmarelius(A) I think there are several ways he could go. I'm not sure who would help him solidify the Republican base who would do McCain any good in a swing state. That's why Mitt Romney's name is as prominent in the speculation as it is. No Republican is going to carry Massachusetts, but he might help in Michigan. The problem is, the bad blood between them was palpable during the primaries. Even if that has receded, it might still be an awkward fit. There are several possibilities that might help McCain in important states: Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Florida Gov. Charlie Criss, former Rep. and budget director Rob Portman of Ohio.

diego72(Q) Clinton is ahead in the West Virginia polls. Where does the race stand in Nebraska?

johnmarelius(A) There are no recent polls in Nebraska. Nebraska held caucuses earlier in the year, and this is a non-binding primary. (Don't ask me why.)

diego72(Q) Speaking of confusing primary rules, has primary reform moved anywhere? Talk about reform seems ot have died down, but the Clinton-Obama race seems to be highlighting the need for it - at least on the Democratic side.

johnmarelius(A) There's a bill in Congress to create a system of rotating regional primaries, but it hasn't gone very far. Both parties have kicked around reform proposals, but not much has happened there either. It's hard to imagine this system getting any worse, but it probably will.

chas(Q) Romney would be awkward. Do you really see the slot going to a swing state gov. and not an idealogical pick? Wouldnt that appeal to a smaller group of people instead of a larger group of voters?

johnmarelius(A) I think it will come down to what McCain thinks he needs the most. Maybe he thinks he can do what Arnold Schwarzenegger did when he ran for re-election in 2006 and take the base for granted. Another consideration is a strongly ideological pick might raise doubts among independents and swing voters.

diego72(Q) Do you think the high price of oil will finally force the U.S. and Congress to get serious about alternative energy? And not just resorting to gimmicks to reduce the price by a few cents a gallon?

johnmarelius(A) I'm betting consumers will get serious about it before Congress does. With any luck, there will be fewer of these monstrous SUVs on the road that are impossible to see around on the freeway. But one would hope that there would be a major push on alternative energy and fuel efficiency standards as well. But we'll see.

chas(Q) You might be right about taking the repub base for granted, but I just saw a ne-con jump into the race as a libertarian and who could potentially drain away the repub, handing the election to the Dem nominee. Do you see a role for Bill or Hillary in the cabinet of an Obama White House or is there too much bad blood? Or would Bill or Hill even be interested?

johnmarelius(A) Bob Barr, the very conservative former Republican congressman from Georgia, announced his candidacy for the Libertarian Party nomination. Oddly enough, so did Mike Gravel, a very liberal Democrat. At the moment, it's hard to see a third-party candidate making much different. But if the race turns out to be close as it was in 2000, all bets are off.

johnmarelius(P) It looks like we're out of time for today. Sorry for the late start. Matt Hall will be here next Tuesday to talk City Hall politics and I'll be back the following week. Thanks for the good questions.

moderator(P) Thank you for participating in today's politics chat. A transcript of this chat will be posted shortly at http://www.signonsandiego.com/chat/transcripts.html . See you next week.


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