Politics Chat - June 24, 2008

Union-Tribune Washington Bureau Chief George Condon answered readers' questions about the presidential race during a Tuesday morning chat session at uniontrib.com/chat.

george_condon(A) Hi. You're the first.

diego72(Q) Who is being rumored to be at the top of McCain's VP list? Ditto for Obama?

george_condon(A) For McCain, there is a lot of party interest in La Gov. Bobbie Jindahl and some interest in Minn Gov. Tim Pawlenty. And former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman. But nobody other than McCain himself knows. For Obama, he probably needs somebody who is more seasoned and has some foreign policy creds. Joe Biden is a very popular choice. You hear Sam Nunn's name but I don't think that makes any sense. Too long out of politics. Too unpopular with some party groups.

moderator(Q) The following question was submitted via e-mail by Adrian: What role do you think immigration issues will play during the race to the White House?

george_condon(A) After all the fuss and the anticipation, I believe it is going to fizzle as a presidential election issue. For it to be an issue, there has got to be some real difference between the two candidates. And, frankly, I don't see much difference on the big questions. They may try to stress their minor differences, but this election will be about Iraq and the economy -- not immigration.

Adrian(Q) If this election is about Iraq and the economy, do you think people will have a stronger sentiment towards Obama rather then another Republican?

george_condon(A) On most issues there is going to be a stronger sentiment for Obama than for McCain. History and public sentiment are very much the friend of Obama right now. His challenge is to persuade the country he is qualified to be president at a time of war. If he does that, then it's likely over for McCain. If he doesn't pass that threshold, we've got a real race.

mayday(Q) When do you think the candidates will announce their VP choices?

george_condon(A) We expect both to do it before their conventions and most likely before the Olympics to enhance the news coverage. After watching George H.W. Bush botch the announcement of Quayle in 88, you're not going to see any nominee wait for his convention.

Adrian(Q) Being a president during a war also means stengthening international bonds, which frankly the US has really dampened over the last 8 years. Do you think Obama or McCain really see international relations as a positive way to interact with the world and repair America's reputation? Or is this election about $5 gas and an expensive war?

george_condon(A) Both nominees are aware of the way int relations have been poisoned in recent years. Both are committed to repairing them. McCain is better known to other leaders; Obama would go over better with the publics overseas. I don't think any election is ever about what foreign countries think. It is always going to be about what is happening to our country. It is not that the war is expensive; it is that it is spilling American blood and most Americans don't really see that any good is being accomplished for such a high price.

Adrian(Q) mayday brings up a good point, do you think its wise for Obama to pick a military background VP to show strength or a popular one like Hillary? I think Wesley Clark would be an ideal pick

george_condon(A) It is always tempting to pick a military man. But most military officers turn out to be not very good candidates. A totally different skill set. Eisenhowers and Colin Powells don't come around very often. I covered Wes Clark four years ago and the promise of Clark turned out to be much better than what we saw on the stump. I'd rather go with somebody who has been vetted fully and you know what you're getting.

mayday(Q) What do you think the key states will be this time around?

george_condon(A) For all the talk of expanding the map, the key battleground states will change little. Ohio, Florida, Penn, Michigan, Missouri. The ones I would add this time are New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. Obama I think can run more strongly there than Kerry did. Also New Hampshire is a true swing state these days.

diego72(Q) What do you make out of William Kristol's recent comments on Fox News Sunday that if it appears Obama were to win, then Bush would attack Iran?

george_condon(A) I have been disappointed in Kristol's columns in the Times. In previous elections he was a pretty sharp analyst. But there seems to be a lot of guessing and a lot of conventional wisdom in his column. I think it is nonsense to suggest any American president would go to war to help another candidate.

mayday(Q) Do you think the "Enron loophole" and its suggested role in the current price of gas will become a campaign issue?

george_condon(A) Not really. Go interview 100 voters and I'll be amazed if you find five who have any idea what the Enron loophole is. When I say the economy is a big issue, I am not just talking about gas. I'm talking about housing and the possibility of inflation and the failure of the middle class family to keep up. There may not be a real recession but lots of Americans think there is one.

mayday(Q) It sure is frustrating to watch the election decided by voters in other states. Any thoughts about whether the electoral college will ever be eliminated?

george_condon(A) You're talking to the wrong person here. I'm a big supporter of the Electoral College. (And not just because I grew up in Ohio.) It is an important way to force candidates to not just focus on the big states and amass huge margins in one region to the detriment of the rest of the country. California should not feel ignored. For most of my life, California was a lock for Republicans. Now it favors Democrats.

Adrian(Q) See I am totally against the electoral college, but I am much more against the 6 - 9 month nomination process.. I find it mind boggoling that you can win the popular vote and not be president, like Gore

george_condon(A) I think everybody agrees the nomination process is broken. When I started covering campaigns, NH primary was in March and California was in June, ending it all. Blame states like Florida and Michigan who insisted on jumping in before the rules allowed, forcing Iowa and NH to move. I had to skip Christmas with my family to be in Iowa. The irony is that if Michigan and Florida had stayed where they were they would have enjoyed enormous coverage and had millions of dollars spent in their states. It was very, very stupid what they did.

mayday(Q) The electoral college allows a candidate to be elected by eking out a small margin in a mid-sized state by focusing on issues that may be unique to that state. That doesn't seem like a good way to elect someone to a national office.

george_condon(A) It really doesn't work that way. In the primaries you see a lot of focus on parochial issues but not really in the general. What you do see is lots of money spent, lots of ads aired and lots of time spent in the battleground states. And they usually aren't small states. Most of the states that are battleground are big states. I should have added to the earlier question as to when I see the Electoral College eliminated, the answer is never. Because the smaller states would never permit it because no candidate would ever go there again.

fdsf(Q) dfsfd

george_condon(A) ????

fdsf(Q) Anyone here?

george_condon(A) It looks like we've run out of time here. I appreciate the questions. It was fun getting into sort of a constitutional discussion.

moderator(P) Thank you for participating in today's chat. The transcript will be posted shortly at http://www.signonsandiego.com/chat/transcripts.html . Have a good day.