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CHAT TRANSCRIPTS

Politics Chat - July 1, 2008

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Union-Tribune reporter John Marelius answered readers' questions about state and national politics during a Tuesday morning chat session at uniontrib.com/chat.

johnmarelius(P) Barack Obama is in Ohio today announcing a program similar to President Bush's faith-based initiative. John McCain is promoting trade in Colombia and Mexico. Not a lot of electoral votets there. And, of course, vice presidential speculation is rampant -- not to mention uninformed. Questions anybody?

FlavorFlav(Q) What are the biggest disadvantages to the US should it decide to restrict free trade, or amend NAFTA?

johnmarelius(A) I wonder how it would work logistically to try to amend a treaty after the fact. I question that any administration would really do much to seriously restrict free trade. The global economy is a fact of life.

AMB(Q) How has Bush managed to avoid impeachment? It seems miraculous.

johnmarelius(A) One of the main reasons impeachment has been a non-starter is the Democratic leadership remembers what happened to the Republicans in the 90s. Voters thought they were overreaching and not tending to the country's problems.

AMB(Q) I would agree with that assessment at that time. Impeachment over a sexual dalliance does seem pointless. Impeachment over misleading the country into an expensive war seems a lot more worthy.

johnmarelius(A) Everybody has an opinion about this. Nancy Pelosi's opinion is that the Republicans paid a heavy price in the next election and she doesn't want any part of it. As a practical matter, it's so late in Bush's term of office he might be gone before any hearings are completed.

diego72(Q) Bill Kristol said on Fox News Sunday a week or two ago that Bush might attack Iran if it looked like Obama would win. CNN.com reported on Sunday that the U.S. is 'preparing the battlefield' in Iran. Are we preparing to go to war in Iran?

johnmarelius(A) I didn't see what Bill Kristol said. It seems to me the military is already spread so thin another front is out of the question. I suppose a quick air strike can't be ruled out if a nuclear facility could be clearly identified, but that would require much better intelligence than we've seen lately.

Thomas_Baer(Q) The thought of attacking Iran scares me. For what purpose? Is it legitimate? I have zero faith in the White House... as I am sure millions of others do not either. Although we'd very likely win, at what cost would it come to us... today and in the future with certainly many more enemies?

johnmarelius(A) I think a lot of people would share your reservations. The consequences of doing anything in Iran would have to be a lot more thought through than they were in Iraq.

diego72(Q) What are your thoughts on Prop. 8? According to the L.A. Times poll it'll pass. According to the Field poll it won't. To me those polls show an evenly divided electorate who were cautious about passing the amendment *before* same-sex marriages began. With those marriages now a reality, and not just theoretical, do you see the amendment passing?

johnmarelius(A) It's hard to say whether it will pass. The fact that same-sex marriages are being performed changing the equation in a couple of ways. For one thing, this is going to be pretty old news by November. For another, it's always easier for voters to vote the status quo and that would be a 'no' vote.

diego72(Q) Democrats are accusing Rep. Bilbray of supporting Bush's "big oil" agenda. Is there any truth to this? How has he supposedly done this, and will this issue gain any traction with $4+ gallon gasoline?

johnmarelius(A) Any member of Congress with a voting record can be attacked over just about anything. The Democrtic Congressional Campaign Committee is trying to show it is serious about going after Bilbray in November. A look at the voter registration numbers in the 50th District -- 46 percent Republican and 30 percent Democratic -- doesn't look very promising. Francine Busby got 45 percent in that district in 2006, and that looked at the time like the ceiling for any Democrat there. But the economy is a lot worse and so are Bush's approval ratings. Plus, Democrats have twice as much money as Republicans this year and half as many seats to defend, so they can afford to take some long shots.

KenC1313(Q) What do you think the time frame is for McCain and Obama to announce their VP choices?

johnmarelius(A) The one thing I think we can assume is that it will be before the conventions. McCain has commented a few times about what a disaster for George H.W. Bush to spring Dan Quayle at the convention without propertly vetting him and preparing him for a campaign at that level.

Thomas_Baer(Q) State pollitics are much more interesting to me than national. Proposition 1 is to develop a high-speed rail system linking San Diego to LA, Fresno, SF and Sacramento. San Diego would have stations in Escondido, University City and at Santa Fe Depot in downtown. It could be a tremendous boost to the downtown area. It would also alleviate future roadway congestion, the need to build more roadways, more airport runways and gates, cut global warming gas emmissions, and become the preferred mode for long distance in-state travel. iot would also be a tremendous boost for downtown businesses. When will the UT come out with a position on the system? Or, already has? What is it?

johnmarelius(A) I don't have anything to do with the editorial page and the endorsements and don't pay much attention to it. It's a little early for endorsements, but they might have. I just don't know. It's not my end of the business.

diego72(Q) What is behind the drilling debate? Republicans are pushing to expand off-shore drilling and open ANWR. Democrats say there is plenty of oil and natural gas to be found by drilling where oil companies have current drilling licenses. Both sides are blocking the other side. Why? I don't understand the strategy on this one.

johnmarelius(A) I can only assume that McCain is making a calculation that he's not going to win California anyway. He might figure that voters in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania care a lot more about paying more than $4 per gallon of gas than oil derricks in Santa Barbara Channel. Of course, McCain's position on offshore oil drilling is not as dramatic a shift as it might seem. He said he would only permit drilling if states want it, which California clearly doesn't.

Thomas_Baer(Q) Will the UT writers cover the proposition? Prop 1? It appears would have a much greater role in California's future than all other propositions; including Prop 8.

johnmarelius(A) We will be covering all of the propositions.

charlie(Q) Has the VP field been whittled down any? I havent seen any new on this in awhile.

johnmarelius(A) I have to assume both campaigns are narrowing the search, but they are both playing this very close to the vest. People who know what's going on aren't talking and people who are talking don't know.

charlie(Q) While I am a Dem. I really dislike Pelosi. I view her a do nothing. A totally political animal who doesnt do anything without checking the wind. Is that accurate and is going to have any trouble winning her seat in Nov?

johnmarelius(A) Pelosi's district in San Francisco is one of the most Democratic districts in the country. It's less than 10 percent Republican. I don't know if a Republican is even running against her and it wouldn't matter.

charlie(C) as a do-nothing

diego72(Q) Obama has hired an ex-staffer of Clinton's to be, if I remember correctly, a VP assistant. This assistant had been fired by the Clinton campaign. That was widely reported as a signal that the New York Senator was not being considered for a Veep. Is it safe to assume that she's out of the running? I never believed he'd pick her anyway.

johnmarelius(A) I'm not sure I'd draw any connections there. Obama is integrating some Clinton people into his campaign and I don't know that has as much to do with the vice presidential search as just staffing up for the fall. I'm inclined to agree with you that Clinton won't be the vice presidential candidate. While nobody would help more than she would when it comes to unifying the Democratic Party, I think she would be of limited help appealing to swing voters and independents which is what Obama will need to win the election. I'm not sure why she would want it. She's established herself as a national political figure and, as such, is well positioned to run for president again in four or eight years.

pfa.ruiz(Q) SF hasn't had a republican mayor since 1964.

johnmarelius(A) Very true. That was George Christopher who lost the Republican gubernatorial nomination to Ronald Reagan in 1966.

jimbob(C) Hi John! What's happening? Did you hear the news about Dick Cheny shooting someone in the face...AGAIN?!!!

charlie(Q) OK, is there any discontent in Pelosi's leadership within the house rank and file? With an new president.........new house leaders?

johnmarelius(A) I don't think there's a threat to her leadership, but there are some splits in the ranks. For one thing a number of the seats that Democrats picked up in 2006 went to some pretty conservative Democrats, particularly in the West.

jimbob(Q) I can't believe our Vice President has shot people in the face!!! AMAZING!!!

johnmarelius(A) He's pretty far down my list of people to go hunting with. Of course, I've never gone hunting.

johnmarelius(P) It looks like we're out of time for this week. Thanks for a lot of good questions. We'll be back next Tuesday at 10:00.

moderator(P) Thank you for participating in today's chat. The transcript will be posted shortly at http://www.signonsandiego.com/chat/transcripts.html . Have a good day.


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