Politics Chat - July 8, 2008

Union-Tribune Washington Bureau Chief George Condon answered readers' questions about the presidential race during a Tuesday morning chat session at uniontrib.com/chat.

KenC1313(Q) What do you expect will be the timeframe for Obama and McCain to announce vice presidential choices?

george_condon(A) For both of them, the time frame is the next month. No one wants to repeat George H.W. Bush's mistake in 1988 when he sprung the surprise pick of Dan Quayle on everybody at New Orleans. Quayle never recovered. Both Obama and McCain want their picks fully vetted before the conventions.

diego72(Q) Any reliable signals yet on who is at the top of the candidates' lists? Apparently, Webb is out.

george_condon(A) You're right. Webb has taken himself out, just like Ohio Gov Ted Strickland did. Both would have been strong electorally. I also think that Gen. Clark has effectively been knocked off the Dem list since our last chat. For McCain, the new name on the list is Carly Fiorina, the former HP head. In the end, though, I doubt McCain would take that chance.

KenC1313(Q) Do you expect the campaigns to begin raising trial balloons soon, so some of the vetting is done before announcements are made, or is that already happening?

george_condon(A) You're right -- it's already being done. That's one of the reasons they had Fiorina out there with the press the last couple of days. See how she'd handle the questions.

diego72(Q) Do you see McCain choosing a woman or minority to compete with the historic appeal of Obama's candidacy?

george_condon(A) A woman would make a lot of sense both for the reason you cite and for the fact that Obama still faces a hurdle winning over unhappy Hillary Clinton backers. To them, he is the one that blocked the type of history they wanted to make. I do not see a minority in the top tier of the possibles, though.

KenC1313(Q) As both candidates seem to be making much of their efforts to woo voters in states that recently went to the other party, do you think they are intent on making their campaigns more of a "50-state blitz" than recent ones have been? And can McCain raise enough money to compete in as many places as Obama?

george_condon(A) The answer to your second question is an unequivocal no. McCain will be strapped financially. As to a 50-state battleground, I think Obama in particular is intrigued by that and many of his backers in the blogosphere are very hot on the idea. But in the end, electoral reality will set in. You will start with the normal battleground states that we saw in 2000 and 2004 and then add a few fresh ones. This is important for Obama. He may lose Ohio or Michigan. He can make up for those losses by winning Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. So the map will be expanded some, but not to 50 states.

diego72(Q) Which states do you think have the best chances for flipping from red to blue, and vice versa?

george_condon(A) Iowa is the most likely state to flip to the Dems, followed closely by New Mexico. (bush got only 50 pct in both) I would add Nevada as the third most likely. Then I would cautiously put Ohio, though Obama has a lot of work to do there. In such a strong Democratic year, there aren't many chances to flip from a Kerry state to McCain, but I think Michigan is a strong possibility. The Democratic brand is tarnished there with an unpopular governor and bruised feelings over beeing skipped inthe primary.

KenC1313(Q) It would seem McCain's efforts to separate himself from the current administration have not been very successful so far. Would you expect him to become even more adament about the differences and/or to exclude President Bush from the campaign entirely?

george_condon(A) I think his most fervent wish is that Bush join Cheney in his famous "undisclosed location" during the convention. But Bush will be there. The president understands politics and understands he is deeply unpopular. He will raise money but won't be a big presence on the campaign trail. McCain's biggest problem separating himself from the president is that he agrees with him on the biggest issue of the Iraq war and agrees with most of what the president has done on taxes and the economy. You can separate yourself on tangential issues but you'r stuck with Bush on the big issues.

diego72(Q) I was just in Atlanta. Georgia is a state with a large African-American population, and there seems to be a lot of excitement there with his candidacy. Heck, they were selling Obama t-shirts on the street. Someone told me the polls showed Obama and McCain were tied in the state. How competitive do you think Southern states like Georgia will be this fall for the Democrats?

george_condon(A) The key is black turnout. If it exceeds all expectations, Obama has a chance. It is one reason to be very, very wary of polls this year. Nobody really knows what turnout model to use. But I suspect this will prove illusory. In the end, Obama will cut the Republican margin in some of those states. But he still is likely to lose. I wouldn't count on Georgia flipping.

george_condon(P) Just to add to the Georgia question, I just checked and the ten most recent polls in the state all show McCain up between 2 and 14 points.

diego72(Q) One person who I talked to about the candidates said he wouldn't vote for McCain b/c of his age. This guy, who described himself and McCain as old, wanted someone young with fresh ideas. Personally, I would think that in a dangerous world age and experience would trump youth and ideas. How much of a factor do you think McCain's age will be this fall?

george_condon(A) A lot depends on how he acts. He definitely has to avoid falling off a stage like Bob Dole did in '96. And he could use Jay Leno making fewer age jokes. This is something I'm looking at for a story -- the role of experience in campaigns and the White House. Remember that Hillary Clinton thought she could win stressing experience. Luckily for Obama, this seems to be a year when voters are not looking for experience. But your question is right -- if anything in the world reminds folks it's a dangerous world, it could help McCain.

KenC1313(Q) Whether due to the unpopularity of Pres. Bush or the historic race between Clinton and Obama, it would seem that there have been a lot of voters who have been newly energized to support the Democrats. Are there enough Independents and undecideds for McCain to appeal to any large segments which can broaden the Republican base?

george_condon(A) Nothing we have seen this year suggests independents or undecideds want to jump into a Republican base. If they vote for McCain it will despite his party, not because of it. He has got to persuade the electorate that he is not like Bush and not like the Republicans in Congress. That's why he even used the word "maverick" in his new ad. This is a very, very tough year to sell the Republican brand. Independents and undecideds aren't sold on Obama, though, and could vote for McCain if they are not persuaded that Obama is up to the job.

diego72(Q) With CNN recently reporting that the U.S. is preparing the battlefield in Iran, and with Bill Kristol's comments a few weeks ago that Bush may attack Iran, do you see the administration launching military strikes against Iran before the election? Or, would this be the last thing an administration would do before an election?

george_condon(A) I don't see this through a political prism. The problem is one of our capabilities. The Army and Marine Corps are stretched almost to the breaking point. Iran is a bigger country than Iraq and would present a much bigger military challenge. I just don't see us able to attack Iran right now or in the foreseeable future. And I don't see allies lining up to share the load. If Iran does something particularly provocative, it will pose a tremendous challenge to the administration.

KenC1313(Q) Conventional wisdom is that candidates appeal to their base in the primary and move toward the center in the general election. Given the circumstances of this year's election, do you think that theory will hold as November approaches?

george_condon(A) I always think that is a little bit overstated. Both George W. Bush and Bill Clinton aimed their primary and general election pitches in the same direction. (Remember "compassionate conservative" in 2000 was disliked by the base. And Clinton based his whole appeal on being "a new kind of Democrat.) Having said that, you are appealling to an electorate that is by definition less partisan though you do stress different things. I think Obama has been a little clumsy in making his shift so far. His inexperience has shown.

george_condon(P) that should be "so" you stress different things, not "though."

KenC1313(Q) You mention that Obama has shown some inexperience in his campaign. Obviously, he has never been involved in a campaign like this before. Has he made an effort to bring in more experienced advisers and staff as his campaign has progressed, or does he resist that as being contrary to his theme of change and fresh ideas?

george_condon(A) The only reason to expand his staff is to reach out to Hillary Clinton supporters. But the staff he has is both experienced and tough. They ran a disciplined and superb primary effort. The inexperience is the candidate himself. He delivers a great speech but needs to be better in debates and off-the -cuff comments.

diego72(Q) As Obama and McCain move to the center and stress different things, it appears sometimes they switch positions, or flip-flop. Do you have suggestions for how voters can accurately evaluate a candidate to get a true idea of how he'll govern while in office?

george_condon(A) I would hope that a candidate would evolve as he or she matures and as facts on the ground change. I don't understand why they don't just admit that and sometimes answer, "I changed my mind on that." More important is what we know about how a candidate makes decisions, what are his core beliefs, and what is his character. And what is his or her view of the role of government.

george_condon(P) I guess it's time to go. Very good, thought-provoking questions today. A perfect antidote to my mourning over my Indians trading away C.C. Sabathia.

moderator(P) Thank you for participating in today's chat. The transcript will be posted shortly at http://www.signonsandiego.com/chat/transcripts.html . Have a good day.