Politics Chat - July 22, 2008

Union-Tribune writer John Marelius answered readers' questions about the presidential race during a Tuesday morning chat session at uniontrib.com/chat.

johnmarelius(P) The big political news of the week is Barack Obama's overseas trip. But there are plenty of other things to chat about as well, so let's get started.

XinJeisan(Q) Thanks as always. Do you believe the rumors that John McCain will announce a VP candidate this week. Is there any reason to annouce a VP before the conventions?

johnmarelius(A) I don't know why he would do it this week, unless he's made up his mind. Because the Republican convention is last, he probably has the luxury of waiting to see what Obama does, although I'm not sure it makes a great deal of difference. As for announcing before the convention, the last time someone waited until the convention to announce a VP was 1988 with George Bush and Dan Quayle. We saw how well that worked out.

diego72(Q) Do you think there is anything to the rumors that McCain will choose Romney as his Veep?

johnmarelius(A) I'm sure Romney is under consideration, but I question whether he would be the choice. Let's add up the pluses and minuses. The pluses are that he might help in Michigan where he has family roots. A bigger plus is that he can raise a lot of money. He helps with the conservative base, but even that is a mixed bag because of the suspicion about Mormons in some evangelical circles. As for the minuses, his salesman demeanor didn't wear very well during the primaries. An even bigger minus is the animosity between Romney and McCain during the primaries. It wasn't just the usual back and forth of campaigning. They plainly did not like each other. And while the relationship has plainly improved, I think comfort level is something that is very importnat to McCain.

XinJeisan(Q) Do you think Arnold Schwarzenegger will be joining an Obama administration?

johnmarelius(A) As news stories go, this is a classic case of making something out of nothing. He was asked if he would consider it and he said he might.

diego72(Q) What do you think are the chances are for Prop. 8's passage? According to an opinion piece in the L.A. Times the measure's supporters choose the wrong time to put this in front of the voters, and as a result, it will be defeated. That view seems to be supported by the most recent polling on the issue, which shows it losing 51 percent to 42 percent.

johnmarelius(A) I think you're talking about the piece by Arnold Steinberg whom I've known for many years and is a very insightful guy. I think his point is very sound, especially the way the November election is shaping up. Every poll shows that there is a significant generational component to attitudes about gay marriage. Young people are simply more accepting than older ones. And if Obama attracts an inordinate number of young voters to the polls in November as he did during the primaries, that is bad news for Proposition 8.

diego72(Q) OK, we've talked about McCain. What about Obama's VP choice? Besides Arnold, what are the rumors (trial balloons?) surrounding his choice?

johnmarelius(A) obama's foreign trip seems to have elevated a new name on the list: Jack Reed, who is accompanying him. A senator from Rhode Island doesn't help a Democratic ticket much. But he also a career Army officer, former military studies professor, a member of the Armed Services Committee and is considered one of the experts in Congress on military policy.

diego72(Q) What do you think the model will be for the next president/vice president relationship? Do you see a return to the days when the veep was mostly just a figure head like Bush-Quayle, or do you see a more active role for the next VP, similar to the Clinton-Gore or Bush-Cheney models?

johnmarelius(A) Actually, Dan Quayle was more of an aberration in the modern history of the vice presidency. Walter Mondale and George Bush were fairly influential vice presidents. Al Gore and Dick Cheney even more so. McCain has said on a number of occasions that he doesn't think the traditional ticket-balancing calculations mean much anymore, which leads me to think he will pick whoever he is the most comfortable with and has the most confidence in whether that person might help deliver a state or a constituency. Obama might well do the same thing.

diego72(Q) What do you make of Clinton's purchase of the Web site domain HRC2012.com?

johnmarelius(A) As I understand it, this is something that some of her former donors did. I'm guessing they were just freelancing. For her to do something like that at this time certainly wouldn't enhance her chances of getting on the ticket.

XinJeisan(Q) Do you think there will be any major surprises in the local congressional races?

johnmarelius(A) Probably not. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee claims it is going to target Brian Bilbray. I'll believe it when I see some serious money being spent. Francine Busby got 45% of the vote two years ago, and that may be about as well as a Democrat can do in a district where only 30% of the voters are registered Democrats. Still, this is shaping up to be a big Democratic year in congressional elections. Congressional Democrats have several times as much money as Republicans and Republicans have twice as many seats to defend. So Democrats have the luxury of being able to afford to take some long shots.

diego72(Q) What do you think of the cover of The New Yorker? I see it as fake outrage. To me it is the very definition of satire. It brings a nasty whisper campaign against Obama into the public and then ridicules it for the absurdity it is. However, some of my black friends and other Americans see things differently.

johnmarelius(A) I completely agree with you. It was satire,pure and simple. I also agree with you about fake outrage. There has been a whole series of petty controversies, usually driven by cable television, over basically innocent comments that didn't come out quite right. The whole thing is pretty tiresome.

diego72(Q) Delving headfirst back into the Clinton rumor mill, have you heard that the New York senator has been promised a seat on the Supreme Court under an Obama administration? I don't believe this rumor, but to me the whole thing reeks of an attempt by the right to scare certain voters.

johnmarelius(A) I hadn't heard that one and don't take it seriously for a minute.

XinJeisan(Q) Beyond the New Yorker cover, the article about Obama inside was very interesting as well. It brings to mind a column David Brooks did a few months ago about the idealistic obama and the shady Chicago politics Obama. Did you read the article and do you have any comments/opnions/stories on the Obama campaign and how it is playing politics this year.

johnmarelius(A) I did read David Brooks' column and found it interesting. I don't know that I would characterize it as anything "shady," but he did make the point that Obama cut his teeth in a political culture that can be pretty rough. And this campaign has clearly showed that he has become a very skilled politician.

diego72(Q) What are your top sources for news, information and rumors? Where does a political reporter turn (besides calling and talking to sources) to stay current?

johnmarelius(A) I read two or three newspapers a day and a lot more stuff on line. I don't pay much attention to the headlines that pop up on Google and Yahoo which often tend to be the frivolous rumor-mill stuff. There are some very good websites. RealClearPolitics and Politico are great for national politics. And PollingReport is just what it sounds like. For California news, Rough&Tumble is a great resource.

diego72(Q) We are told that this is a toxic environment for Republicans. Yet the polls show the public dislikes the Democratic controlled Congress more than President Bush. Why is the conventional wisdom that the Republicans are in serious trouble? These numbers weren't this low for the last Congress, which got booted out of Washington. To me this would indicate a broad "kick the bums out" atmosphere that wasn't limited to party. Yet the Dems are projected to increase their numbers this cycle.

johnmarelius(A) I think you're right that there could be a bipartisan "throw-the-bums-out" mentality on the part of voters this November. The problem for Republicans is they have limited opportunities to capitalize on whatever animosity might exist toward the Democratic congressional leadership. As I mentioned earlier, Democrats have a lot more money to spend and a lot more vulnerable Republican seats to target. The Republicans have been hit hard by retirements, especially in the Senate, the past two years leaving seats in places like Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi that would normally be easy wins in jeopardy.

johnmarelius(P) Looks like we're out of time for this week. This is the last chat for awhile. We're going on hiatus while some changes I don't begin to understand are made to the website. Perhaps our moderator who actually understands this stuff can explain further. We'll keep you apprised of developments. Thanks for participating.

moderator(P) Yes, we will take a break for a few weeks as we change software. We should be back before long with better software and an improved user experience.

moderator(P) The transcript of this chat will be posted shortly at http://www.signonsandeigo.com/chat/transcripts.html