Imagine San Diego without the Chargers. It was easy enough to do 50 years ago, when the professional football team not only wasn't here, it didn't exist. But it does now, and there's a growing chance it will exist somewhere else very soon – perhaps as early as next year.
The Chargers aren't firing this warning shot across our leaky bow. I am. The handwriting, man. It's the size of Texas.
I never thought I'd say it. I've spent hours wracking what brain I have left wondering where they'd go after their Qualcomm Stadium agreement with our inspiring, visionary city, allows them to opt out in January.
I've wasted my time.
They can go somewhere, perhaps to a place that already has one NFL team on its premises. I'm not saying it will happen. The Spanos family has spent more than $10 million trying to find a way to keep its team in this area, and $10 million, no matter how silver your spoon, isn't stuff used to nourish poultry.
Nor is the $56 million in debt from Qualcomm's expansion the Chargers will owe the city should they choose to leave. But it's not enough to keep them in place if nothing can get done around here, not when ownership can make it up elsewhere.
And there are few options. “Few,” in fact, is the wrong word.
“We're down to one site for the stadium,” says Mark Fabiani, who handles new stadium issues for the club.
That would be the bayfront power plant property in Chula Vista, and until alternative power links can be provided – we could know more by late August, but litigation (of course) might delay things – that remains on hold.
The site in eastern Chula Vista has been ruled out for a stadium due to traffic concerns, Fabiani says, but could be the spot for the housing and businesses needed to finance a new venue.
“I can't be optimistic about things we have no control over,” Fabiani says. “I wish there was a magic solution.”
Chula Vista won't go ahead with the power plant idea until the controversial Gaylord project is resolved one way or the other. Several things must come together before that massive undertaking can be resolved, and the current economic climate isn't helping.
Billionaire Ed Roski, who has professional ties in development with the Spanos family's construction business, wants to build an NFL stadium on his own property in the City of Commerce. Problem is, he doesn't own a team, the Spanoses aren't anxious to part with even a smidgen of theirs, and there's no money in a football stadium unless you own a club.
“They always have said they aren't interested in selling the team and I'm sure that remains their position,” Fabiani says. “But I can't see the future. It's a business. And it's pretty clear you can't hope to compete forever in an old stadium. Maybe for a while, but not indefinitely.
“But I don't see anyone breaking ground on a new stadium until a team emerges.”
The last thing the Chargers want to be is a lame duck. L.A. has other places – the Coliseum and Rose Bowl – that can handle an NFL team while a new stadium is being built. Many cities already have facilities standing, some of them plenty good enough for a while if promises of a new stadium are kept.
San Diego has nothing, including promises. People at City Hall can't even give away U.S. Open tickets without tripping over themselves. Doesn't really matter. The Qualcomm site, once considered a no-brainer for a new stadium, won't work anymore, not the way it originally was planned.
“Four or five years ago, we were talking about building a $450 million stadium, with $250 million for infrastructure improvements,” Fabiani says. “Now, a project in the same place would be double that, at least $1.2 billion, because of the rising cost of steel and concrete. The new stadiums in New York and Dallas will cost at least $1.5 billion.
“We were talking about financing the stadium with 6,000 condos. The condo market is down. Even if it were to come back, how do we fund the $500 million to make up the difference in (construction) cost?”
Well, you don't.
It's hardly amazing that the Chargers are down to one option. Think of where they are. They can continue to play in Qualcomm, but how long can they compete there? A possible salary-cap-free season could be coming up, which means the big guys – the New Yorks, Washingtons, Dallases, New Englands, et al. – could go fiscally berserk. The Chargers can't.
“We've got major stars to re-sign and people expect them to be re-signed,” Fabiani says. “But we have to generate enough revenue. We're in a business where people expect us to win. How do we keep up? Salary caps for some teams could be increased by the tens of millions.
“There's a world for a team with an old stadium – a world where you're consistently behind. It's a world you see in baseball all the time.”
And this isn't baseball. It's reality.
Reality being what it is, this two-horse town could be back to one, and, at the moment, the one we have – the Padres – isn't Secretariat.
Nick Canepa: (619) 293-1397; nick.canepa@uniontrib.com
